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IF Karlstad II vs Grebbestad Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:30

IF Karlstad II

PPG 0.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grebbestad

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-18.5%0-28.8%0-36.1%0-4+5.1%1 1-04.6%1-19.5%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.6%2-15.3%2-25.5%2-33.8%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.0%3-12.0%3-22.1%3-31.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 55.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 52.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob60.0%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 1–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Karlstad II1.1

Grebbestad2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IF KARLSTAD II · PPG 0.33

GREBBESTAD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.96 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

IF Karlstad II (H) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Grebbestad (A) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Karlstad II face Grebbestad in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Karlstad II a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Grebbestad 55%, so Grebbestad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for IF Karlstad II and 2.1 for Grebbestad (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Karlstad II are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Grebbestad.

IF Karlstad II vs Grebbestad Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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