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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Kauno Žalgiris II

PPG 0.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atmosfera

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-115.7%0-214.3%0-38.6%0-4+5.9%1 1-05.5%1-19.9%1-29.0%1-35.4%1-4+3.7%2 2-01.7%2-13.1%2-22.8%2-31.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% 19.0% 5.25 -17.5%

Draw 22.7% 25.0% 4.00 -5.5%

Away win 63.8% 67.6% 1.48 -5.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 35.6% 2.81 -11.3%

BTTS 48.7% 54.9% 1.82 -11.4%

Home O1.5 32.6% 23.8% 4.20 +36.9%

Away O1.5 48.3% 63.3% 1.58 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.6%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.7%

A 64% / xG 0.6-1.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.3%

#2 0–1 15.7%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Žalgiris II0.6

Atmosfera1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.38

ATMOSFERA · PPG 2.17

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.19 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Žalgiris II (H) 13.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -17.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.5%

Atmosfera (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Žalgiris II face Atmosfera in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Žalgiris II a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Atmosfera 64%, so Atmosfera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Kauno Žalgiris II and 1.8 for Atmosfera (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Žalgiris II are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 2.17 for Atmosfera. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +36.9%.

Kauno Žalgiris II vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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