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Be1 NFA vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:30

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jonava

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.3%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-19.1%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-16.9%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 57.1% 1.75 +2.9%

Draw 21.3% 27.8% 3.60 -14.0%

Away win 19.9% 27.0% 3.70 -15.8%

Over 2.5 61.2% 57.1% 1.75 +7.1%

Over 3.5 37.3% 38.2% 2.62 -2.3%

BTTS 52.7% 62.1% 1.61 -15.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 58.5% 1.71 +2.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 34.1% 2.93 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.6%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Be1 NFA2.1

Jonava0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.50

JONAVA · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Be1 NFA (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +2.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.0%

Jonava (A) 19.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Be1 NFA face Jonava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Be1 NFA a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Jonava 20%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Be1 NFA and 0.8 for Jonava (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Be1 NFA are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Jonava. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.1%.

Be1 NFA vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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