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Garliava vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:00

Garliava

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Neptūną Klaipėda

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.5%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-112.3%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 40.8% 2.45 +21.5%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 23.8% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 57.1% 1.75 -11.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 38.6% 2.59 -15.1%

BTTS 49.2% 65.4% 1.53 -24.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.1% 2.17 -1.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 48.3% 2.07 -34.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.6%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garliava1.5

Neptūną Klaipėda0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GARLIAVA · PPG 1.88

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Garliava (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +21.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Neptūną Klaipėda (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Garliava face Neptūną Klaipėda in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garliava a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Neptūną Klaipėda 24%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Garliava and 0.8 for Neptūną Klaipėda (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garliava are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.75 for Neptūną Klaipėda.

Garliava vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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