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Hegelmann II vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Minija

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.84 for Away, form 0.75 vs 2.11

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-19.8%0-212.5%0-310.6%0-4+12.4%1 1-02.7%1-17.0%1-28.9%1-37.5%1-4+8.8%2 2-01.0%2-12.5%2-23.1%2-32.7%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 5.3% 19.00 +83.6%

Draw 20.7% 11.1% 9.00 +51.8%

Away win 66.7% 90.9% 1.10 -26.6%

Over 2.5 61.2% 73.5% 1.36 -16.8%

Over 3.5 37.3% 52.1% 1.92 -28.4%

BTTS 49.2% 36.4% 2.75 +35.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 9.1% 11.00 +258.6%

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.6%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob49.2%

A 67% / xG 0.7-2.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.5%

#2 0–3 10.6%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann II0.7

Minija2.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.75

MINIJA · PPG 2.11

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.84 for Away, form 0.75 vs 2.11

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann II (H) 12.6%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +83.6%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +51.8%

Minija (A) 66.7%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann II face Minija in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann II a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Minija 67%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Hegelmann II and 2.5 for Minija (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann II are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.11 for Minija. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +258.6%.

Hegelmann II vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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