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Mash'al vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Mash'al

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sogdiana

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.0%0-28.5%0-34.8%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.7%1-111.3%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.8%2-16.4%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.4%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 42.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 75%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mash'al1.1

Sogdiana1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MASH'AL · PPG 0.57

SOGDIANA · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mash'al (H) 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sogdiana (A) 42.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mash'al face Sogdiana in Uzbekistan - Super League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mash'al a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Sogdiana 43%, so Sogdiana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mash'al and 1.7 for Sogdiana (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mash'al are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Sogdiana.

Mash'al vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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