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Ekibastuz vs Yelimay Semey 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 12:00

Ekibastuz

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yelimay Semey 2

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.6%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-111.9%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 25.7% — — —

Over 2.5 51.0% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 48.0% — — —

Away O1.5 24.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekibastuz1.6

Yelimay Semey 20.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EKIBASTUZ · PPG 1.00

YELIMAY SEMEY 2 · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ekibastuz (H) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yelimay Semey 2 (A) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekibastuz face Yelimay Semey 2 in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekibastuz a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Yelimay Semey 2 26%, so Ekibastuz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ekibastuz and 0.9 for Yelimay Semey 2 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekibastuz are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.62 for Yelimay Semey 2.

Ekibastuz vs Yelimay Semey 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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