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Astana II vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 14:00

Astana II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arys

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.88 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.0%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.7%1-15.9%1-23.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-18.5%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-112.2%4+-26.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% — — —

Draw 16.8% — — —

Away win 18.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 65% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Astana II2.9

Arys1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTANA II · PPG 2.00

ARYS · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.88 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Astana II (H) 64.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arys (A) 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Astana II face Arys in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Astana II a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Arys 19%, so Astana II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Astana II and 1.0 for Arys (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Astana II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Arys.

Astana II vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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