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Tobol 2 vs Shakhter Karagandy Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 13:00

Tobol 2

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shakhter Karagandy

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.56 for Away, form 0.88 vs 2.38

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-14.3%0-27.5%0-38.7%0-4+18.4%1 1-01.1%1-13.9%1-26.8%1-37.9%1-4+16.8%2 2-00.5%2-11.8%2-23.1%2-33.6%2-4+7.7%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-21.0%3-31.1%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% — — —

Draw 17.1% — — —

Away win 69.7% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 53.3% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 84.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob62.1%

A 70% / xG 0.9-3.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.7%

#2 1–3 7.9%

#3 0–4 7.5%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 1–4 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tobol 20.9

Shakhter Karagandy3.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TOBOL 2 · PPG 0.88

SHAKHTER KARAGANDY · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.56 for Away, form 0.88 vs 2.38

Win probability 1X2

Tobol 2 (H) 13.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shakhter Karagandy (A) 69.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tobol 2 face Shakhter Karagandy in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tobol 2 a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Shakhter Karagandy 70%, so Shakhter Karagandy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tobol 2 and 3.5 for Shakhter Karagandy (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tobol 2 are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 2.38 for Shakhter Karagandy.

Tobol 2 vs Shakhter Karagandy Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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