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Hills Brumbies vs Bankstown City Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Hills Brumbies

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bankstown City Lions

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.3%0-25.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.8%1-110.0%1-28.6%1-35.0%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.6%2-17.9%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 33.3% 3.00 +8.3%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 41.3% 51.3% 1.95 -19.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 63.7% 1.57 -0.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.6% 2.35 -5.5%

BTTS 62.1% 68.0% 1.47 -8.7%

Home O1.5 48.4% 45.5% 2.20 +6.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 54.9% 1.82 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.1%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hills Brumbies1.6

Bankstown City Lions1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HILLS BRUMBIES · PPG 1.45

BANKSTOWN CITY LIONS · PPG 1.92

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hills Brumbies (H) 36.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Bankstown City Lions (A) 41.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hills Brumbies face Bankstown City Lions in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hills Brumbies a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Bankstown City Lions 41%, so Bankstown City Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hills Brumbies and 1.7 for Bankstown City Lions (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hills Brumbies are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.92 for Bankstown City Lions. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.5%.

Hills Brumbies vs Bankstown City Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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