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Prospect United vs Blacktown Spartans Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:00

Prospect United

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Blacktown Spartans

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.3%0-29.8%0-37.7%0-4+7.8%1 1-03.5%1-18.3%1-29.7%1-37.6%1-4+7.7%2 2-01.7%2-14.1%2-24.8%2-33.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 21.1% 4.75 -21.8%

Draw 22.6% 20.0% 5.00 +7.8%

Away win 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 71.4% 1.40 -11.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

BTTS 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Home O1.5 32.6% 34.1% 2.93 -4.5%

Away O1.5 67.8% 72.5% 1.38 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob55.4%

A 64% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 0–3 7.7%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prospect United1.0

Blacktown Spartans2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PROSPECT UNITED · PPG 0.67

BLACKTOWN SPARTANS · PPG 1.83

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.36 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Prospect United (H) 13.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -21.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +7.8%

Blacktown Spartans (A) 64.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prospect United face Blacktown Spartans in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prospect United a 13% chance, the draw 23% and Blacktown Spartans 64%, so Blacktown Spartans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Prospect United and 2.3 for Blacktown Spartans (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prospect United are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Blacktown Spartans.

Prospect United vs Blacktown Spartans Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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