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Hurstville FC vs Northern Tigers Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

Hurstville FC

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Northern Tigers

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.1%0-28.0%0-34.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.8%1-29.3%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.4%2-16.9%2-25.5%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 34.5% 2.90 -6.9%

Draw 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

Away win 42.8% 50.0% 2.00 -14.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 60.6% 1.65 -11.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 43.5% 2.30 -25.9%

BTTS 55.4% 68.0% 1.47 -18.6%

Home O1.5 32.6% 45.5% 2.20 -28.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 56.2% 1.78 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hurstville FC1.2

Northern Tigers1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HURSTVILLE FC · PPG 1.57

NORTHERN TIGERS · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hurstville FC (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.5%

Northern Tigers (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hurstville FC face Northern Tigers in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hurstville FC a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Northern Tigers 43%, so Northern Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hurstville FC and 1.6 for Northern Tigers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hurstville FC are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.58 for Northern Tigers.

Hurstville FC vs Northern Tigers Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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