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Rydalmere Lions vs Newcastle Jets II Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 08:30

Rydalmere Lions

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Newcastle Jets II

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.4%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.7%1-18.9%1-26.9%1-33.6%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.8%3-15.9%3-24.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.7%4+-23.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 52.4% 1.91 -5.8%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 28.4% 34.5% 2.90 -10.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 71.4% 1.40 -6.2%

Over 3.5 44.8% 51.5% 1.94 -13.1%

BTTS 63.5% 74.6% 1.34 -14.9%

Home O1.5 53.6% 63.3% 1.58 -15.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rydalmere Lions2.0

Newcastle Jets II1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RYDALMERE LIONS · PPG 1.33

NEWCASTLE JETS II · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rydalmere Lions (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -5.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Newcastle Jets II (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rydalmere Lions face Newcastle Jets II in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rydalmere Lions a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Newcastle Jets II 28%, so Rydalmere Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rydalmere Lions and 1.6 for Newcastle Jets II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rydalmere Lions are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.08 for Newcastle Jets II.

Rydalmere Lions vs Newcastle Jets II Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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