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The Cove vs Adelaide Cobras Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:30

The Cove

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Cobras

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.5%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.5%1-19.5%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-16.9%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-15.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 58.8% — — —

Over 3.5 36.2% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Cove2.1

Adelaide Cobras0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

THE COVE · PPG 1.88

ADELAIDE COBRAS · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The Cove (H) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adelaide Cobras (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

The Cove face Adelaide Cobras in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Cove a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Adelaide Cobras 20%, so The Cove are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for The Cove and 0.9 for Adelaide Cobras (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Cove are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.44 for Adelaide Cobras.

The Cove vs Adelaide Cobras Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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