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Adelaide Raiders vs Fulham United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Raiders

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fulham United

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.2%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.0%1-16.2%1-23.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-110.9%4+-26.7%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 50.0% 2.00 +29.4%

Draw 16.7% 25.6% 3.90 -20.9%

Away win 18.6% 35.7% 2.80 -28.7%

Over 2.5 71.8% 69.4% 1.44 +3.4%

Over 3.5 49.7% 49.5% 2.02 +0.4%

BTTS 64.0% 73.5% 1.36 -13.0%

Home O1.5 65.4% 60.6% 1.65 +7.9%

Away O1.5 36.9% 50.8% 1.97 -27.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.0%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Raiders2.8

Fulham United1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE RAIDERS · PPG 2.33

FULHAM UNITED · PPG 1.78

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Raiders (H) 64.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +29.4%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -20.9%

Fulham United (A) 18.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Raiders face Fulham United in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Raiders a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Fulham United 19%, so Adelaide Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Adelaide Raiders and 1.2 for Fulham United (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Raiders are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.78 for Fulham United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.0%.

Adelaide Raiders vs Fulham United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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