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Adelaide Cobras vs Adelaide Olympic Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 09:30

Adelaide Cobras

PPG 0.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.7%0-27.2%0-34.4%0-4+3.1%1 1-05.5%1-110.2%1-29.5%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.3%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-22.8%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 30.8% 3.25 +3.4%

Draw 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Away win 44.4% 55.6% 1.80 -20.1%

Over 2.5 61.6% 65.4% 1.53 -5.8%

Over 3.5 39.4% 44.4% 2.25 -11.3%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 38.3% 42.0% 2.38 -8.8%

Away O1.5 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.1%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Cobras1.3

Adelaide Olympic1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COBRAS · PPG 0.44

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 1.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Cobras (H) 31.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +3.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

Adelaide Olympic (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Cobras face Adelaide Olympic in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Cobras a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Adelaide Olympic 44%, so Adelaide Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Adelaide Cobras and 1.9 for Adelaide Olympic (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Cobras are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.33 for Adelaide Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Adelaide Cobras vs Adelaide Olympic Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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