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Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 05:30

Modbury Jets

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Victory

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.2%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-17.1%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 63.7% 1.57 -10.5%

Draw 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -3.3%

Away win 20.4% 24.4% 4.10 -9.8%

Over 2.5 62.5% 66.7% 1.50 -6.3%

Over 3.5 39.9% 46.1% 2.17 -13.4%

BTTS 55.4% 66.2% 1.51 -16.4%

Home O1.5 61.8% 68.5% 1.46 -9.8%

Away O1.5 28.5% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Modbury Jets2.1

Adelaide Victory1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MODBURY JETS · PPG 2.11

ADELAIDE VICTORY · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Modbury Jets (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -10.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.3%

Adelaide Victory (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Modbury Jets face Adelaide Victory in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Modbury Jets a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Adelaide Victory 20%, so Modbury Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Modbury Jets and 1.0 for Adelaide Victory (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Modbury Jets are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.75 for Adelaide Victory.

Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Victory Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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