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Real Cartagena vs Ind. Yumbo Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 01:10

Real Cartagena

PPG 2.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ind. Yumbo

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.1%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.2%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 29.5% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 25.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Cartagena1.5

Ind. Yumbo0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 2.15

IND. YUMBO · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Cartagena (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ind. Yumbo (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Cartagena face Ind. Yumbo in Colombia - Primera B on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Cartagena a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Ind. Yumbo 24%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Cartagena and 0.9 for Ind. Yumbo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Cartagena are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.38 for Ind. Yumbo.

Real Cartagena vs Ind. Yumbo Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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