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Real Soacha vs Popayan Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 19:00

Real Soacha

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Popayan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+17.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-111.2%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.4%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-17.9%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 55.6% 1.80 -32.9%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 34.8% 22.2% 4.50 +56.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 38.5% 2.60 +19.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.4% 44.4% 2.25 +17.9%

Home O1.5 32.4% 44.4% 2.25 -27.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 22.2% 4.50 +59.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.4%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Soacha1.2

Popayan1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOACHA · PPG 1.12

POPAYAN · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Soacha (H) 37.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -32.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Popayan (A) 34.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +56.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Soacha face Popayan in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Soacha a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Popayan 35%, so Real Soacha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Soacha and 1.1 for Popayan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Soacha are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Popayan. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +59.3%.

Real Soacha vs Popayan Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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