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Real Soacha vs Real Cartagena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 21:00

Real Soacha

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Cartagena

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-112.8%0-28.9%0-34.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.6%2-16.4%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 35.1% 2.85 -10.2%

Draw 26.7% 35.1% 2.85 -14.3%

Away win 41.9% 40.0% 2.50 +4.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 43.5% 2.30 +15.9%

Over 3.5 28.9% 23.1% 4.33 +15.1%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 37.7% 2.65 +15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 0–2 8.9%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Soacha1.0

Real Cartagena1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOACHA · PPG 1.14

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.39, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Soacha (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -14.3%

Real Cartagena (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Soacha face Real Cartagena in Colombia - Primera B on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Soacha a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Real Cartagena 42%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Soacha and 1.4 for Real Cartagena (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Soacha are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.36 for Real Cartagena. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Real Soacha vs Real Cartagena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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