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Depor FC vs Real Santander Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 21:00

Depor FC

PPG 0.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Santander

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.9%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.5%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.9%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 23.9% 31.3% 3.20 -14.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.8% 1.93 -2.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 23.7% 35.7% 2.80 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Depor FC1.4

Real Santander0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPOR FC · PPG 0.44

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Depor FC (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Real Santander (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Depor FC face Real Santander in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Depor FC a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Real Santander 24%, so Depor FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Depor FC and 0.9 for Real Santander (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Depor FC are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 0.12 for Real Santander. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Depor FC vs Real Santander Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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