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Leones FC vs Quindio Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 22:30

Leones FC

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Quindio

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-121.9%0-214.4%0-36.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.0%1-110.5%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-01.9%2-12.5%2-21.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 29.6% — — —

Away win 57.0% — — —

Over 2.5 35.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.2% — — —

BTTS 44.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 41.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob44.5%

A 57% / xG 0.5-1.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.9%

#2 0–0 16.7%

#3 0–2 14.4%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones FC0.5

Quindio1.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES FC · PPG 0.71

QUINDIO · PPG 2.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Leones FC (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Quindio (A) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones FC face Quindio in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones FC a 13% chance, the draw 30% and Quindio 57%, so Quindio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Leones FC and 1.3 for Quindio (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones FC are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 2.09 for Quindio.

Leones FC vs Quindio Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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