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Orsomarso vs Tigres FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 23:00

Orsomarso

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tigres FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.3%0-114.2%0-24.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.8%1-112.5%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.3%2-15.5%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% — — —

Draw 34.5% — — —

Away win 25.9% — — —

Over 2.5 34.8% — — —

Over 3.5 14.6% — — —

BTTS 45.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.3%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–1 14.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orsomarso0.9

Tigres FC0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.38

TIGRES FC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 1.55 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orsomarso (H) 39.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tigres FC (A) 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Orsomarso face Tigres FC in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orsomarso a 40% chance, the draw 35% and Tigres FC 26%, so Orsomarso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Orsomarso and 0.7 for Tigres FC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orsomarso are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Tigres FC.

Orsomarso vs Tigres FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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