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Bogota FC vs Leones FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 21:30

Bogota FC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leones FC

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-18.9%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-17.6%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.3%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 36.3% — — —

Over 3.5 18.1% — — —

BTTS 45.5% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 0–0 14.8%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bogota FC1.3

Leones FC0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOGOTA FC · PPG 1.25

LEONES FC · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bogota FC (H) 50.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Leones FC (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bogota FC face Leones FC in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bogota FC a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Leones FC 21%, so Bogota FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bogota FC and 0.6 for Leones FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bogota FC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.89 for Leones FC.

Bogota FC vs Leones FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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