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Envigado vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 20:30

Envigado

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Magdalena

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-110.6%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.7%1-113.2%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.2%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 34.7% — — —

Away O1.5 32.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Envigado1.2

Union Magdalena1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ENVIGADO · PPG 1.83

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Envigado (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Magdalena (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Envigado face Union Magdalena in Colombia - Primera B on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Envigado a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Union Magdalena 27%, so Envigado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Envigado and 1.0 for Union Magdalena (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Envigado are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.82 for Union Magdalena.

Envigado vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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