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Popayan vs Tigres FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:00

Popayan

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tigres FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-113.0%0-25.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 51.3% 1.95 -16.7%

Draw 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Away win 26.8% 26.0% 3.85 +1.9%

Over 2.5 37.3% 38.5% 2.60 -3.0%

Over 3.5 19.9% 18.2% 5.50 +5.7%

BTTS 48.7% 46.5% 2.15 +4.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 41.7% 2.40 -21.8%

Away O1.5 24.4% 23.8% 4.20 +1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.7%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Popayan1.0

Tigres FC0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

POPAYAN · PPG 1.00

TIGRES FC · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Popayan (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -16.7%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Tigres FC (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Popayan face Tigres FC in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Popayan a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Tigres FC 27%, so Popayan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Popayan and 0.9 for Tigres FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Popayan are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Tigres FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.8%.

Popayan vs Tigres FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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