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Buxoro vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:30

Buxoro

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.0%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-112.7%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 30.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 75%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buxoro1.4

Lokomotiv1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXORO · PPG 2.29

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Buxoro (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lokomotiv (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buxoro face Lokomotiv in Uzbekistan - Super League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buxoro a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Lokomotiv 27%, so Buxoro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Buxoro and 1.0 for Lokomotiv (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buxoro are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.43 for Lokomotiv.

Buxoro vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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