Today / Kazakhstan - 1. Division / Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Aktobe Jas

Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Aktobe Jas Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 13:00

Kaspij Aktau 2

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aktobe Jas

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.9%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.7%1-15.4%1-24.0%1-32.0%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.3%2-17.8%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.5%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-111.0%4+-28.1%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% — — —

Draw 16.4% — — —

Away win 20.8% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 51.4% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 63% / xG 2.9-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 2–2 5.8%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspij Aktau 22.9

Aktobe Jas1.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIJ AKTAU 2 · PPG 1.67

AKTOBE JAS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kaspij Aktau 2 (H) 62.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aktobe Jas (A) 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspij Aktau 2 face Aktobe Jas in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspij Aktau 2 a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Aktobe Jas 21%, so Kaspij Aktau 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Kaspij Aktau 2 and 1.5 for Aktobe Jas (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspij Aktau 2 are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.50 for Aktobe Jas.

Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Aktobe Jas Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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