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Taraz vs Akademiya Ontustik Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 12:00

Taraz

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Akademiya Ontustik

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.8%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-112.0%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 31.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Taraz1.5

Akademiya Ontustik1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TARAZ · PPG 1.86

AKADEMIYA ONTUSTIK · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Taraz (H) 44.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Akademiya Ontustik (A) 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Taraz face Akademiya Ontustik in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Taraz a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Akademiya Ontustik 31%, so Taraz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Taraz and 1.2 for Akademiya Ontustik (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Taraz are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.86 for Akademiya Ontustik.

Taraz vs Akademiya Ontustik Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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