Today / USA - USL Championship / Las Vegas Lights vs Oakland Roots
Las Vegas Lights vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship
Group Stage ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 02:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 99 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%
Form & verdict
LAS VEGAS LIGHTS · PPG 1.50
OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.12
xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Las Vegas Lights face Oakland Roots in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas Lights a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Oakland Roots 27%, so Las Vegas Lights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.3 for Oakland Roots (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas Lights are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.12 for Oakland Roots. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.5%.