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FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 00:30

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sacramento Republic

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-112.9%0-25.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.2%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.3%2-16.8%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 38.5% 2.60 +0.1%

Draw 32.8% 30.8% 3.25 +6.6%

Away win 28.6% 40.8% 2.45 -18.0%

Over 2.5 36.3% 47.6% 2.10 -23.8%

Over 3.5 18.1% 26.3% 3.80 -18.7%

BTTS 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 38.5% 2.60 -16.5%

Away O1.5 20.4% 40.8% 2.45 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 16.2%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tulsa1.0

Sacramento Republic0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TULSA · PPG 1.67

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 1.25

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Tulsa (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +0.1%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.6%

Sacramento Republic (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tulsa face Sacramento Republic in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tulsa a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Sacramento Republic 29%, so FC Tulsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FC Tulsa and 0.8 for Sacramento Republic (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tulsa are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Sacramento Republic.

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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