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Carabobo FC vs Trujillanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 21:00

Carabobo FC

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trujillanos FC

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-11.8%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.5%1-15.3%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-17.7%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.0%3-17.5%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.8%4+-111.1%4+-23.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 71.4% 1.40 +5.0%

Draw 16.6% 27.0% 3.70 -23.2%

Away win 8.4% 11.8% 8.50 -17.2%

Over 2.5 65.1% 50.0% 2.00 +30.2%

Over 3.5 43.0% 29.0% 3.45 +48.4%

BTTS 51.6% 46.5% 2.15 +10.9%

Home O1.5 78.3% 61.7% 1.62 +26.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% 17.4% 5.75 +0.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob51.6%

H 75% / xG 2.9-0.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 3–0 12.0%

#3 4–0 8.7%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo FC2.9

Trujillanos FC0.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO FC · PPG 2.09

TRUJILLANOS FC · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.28 for Home, form 2.09 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo FC (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +5.0%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -23.2%

Trujillanos FC (A) 8.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo FC face Trujillanos FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo FC a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Trujillanos FC 8%, so Carabobo FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Carabobo FC and 0.6 for Trujillanos FC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo FC are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.17 for Trujillanos FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.4%.

Carabobo FC vs Trujillanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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