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Caracas FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 22:30

Caracas FC

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estudiantes de Merida FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.2%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.3%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.6%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% — — —

Draw 25.7% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 31.7% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caracas FC1.5

Estudiantes de Merida FC1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CARACAS FC · PPG 1.43

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Caracas FC (H) 46.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Estudiantes de Merida FC (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Caracas FC face Estudiantes de Merida FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caracas FC a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Estudiantes de Merida FC 28%, so Caracas FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Caracas FC and 1.1 for Estudiantes de Merida FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caracas FC are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Estudiantes de Merida FC.

Caracas FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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