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UCV vs Monagas SC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 22:00

UCV

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Monagas SC

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.0%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-17.6%1-23.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-17.9%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-18.9%4+-24.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% — — —

Draw 19.6% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 64.4% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 30.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.0%

H 61% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV2.5

Monagas SC1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV · PPG 1.67

MONAGAS SC · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UCV (H) 61.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Monagas SC (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV face Monagas SC in Venezuela - Primera División on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Monagas SC 19%, so UCV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for UCV and 1.0 for Monagas SC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Monagas SC.

UCV vs Monagas SC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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