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Hradec Kralove vs Slavia Prague Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:30

Hradec Kralove

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Slavia Prague

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Away 58% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-112.6%0-210.6%0-35.9%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.1%2-15.2%2-24.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.5% 22.0% 4.55 -6.7%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -11.3%

Away win 55.3% 59.5% 1.68 -7.1%

Over 2.5 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Over 3.5 26.0% 33.3% 3.00 -22.0%

BTTS 48.5% 57.8% 1.73 -16.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.5%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.6%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 0–2 10.6%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hradec Kralove0.9

Slavia Prague1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HRADEC KRALOVE · PPG 1.79

SLAVIA PRAGUE · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.79) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.29)

Win probability 1X2

Hradec Kralove (H) 20.5%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -6.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.3%

Slavia Prague (A) 55.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hradec Kralove face Slavia Prague in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hradec Kralove a 21% chance, the draw 24% and Slavia Prague 55%, so Slavia Prague are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hradec Kralove and 1.7 for Slavia Prague (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hradec Kralove are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.29 for Slavia Prague. This match finished 2-1.

Hradec Kralove vs Slavia Prague Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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