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Provincial vs Deportivo Metalurgico Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 9 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 18:00

Provincial

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Metalurgico

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.42 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-115.5%0-215.4%0-310.2%0-4+8.0%1 1-04.4%1-18.7%1-28.7%1-35.8%1-4+4.5%2 2-01.2%2-12.5%2-22.5%2-31.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 65.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 54.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob48.4%

A 66% / xG 0.6-2.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.4%

#2 0–1 15.5%

#3 0–3 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Provincial0.6

Deportivo Metalurgico2.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PROVINCIAL · PPG 1.00

DEPORTIVO METALURGICO · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.42 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Provincial (H) 13.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Metalurgico (A) 65.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Provincial face Deportivo Metalurgico in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Provincial a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Deportivo Metalurgico 66%, so Deportivo Metalurgico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Provincial and 2.0 for Deportivo Metalurgico (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Provincial are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Deportivo Metalurgico.

Provincial vs Deportivo Metalurgico Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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