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Buenos Aires City vs Alumni Los Hornos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 12 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Buenos Aires City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alumni Los Hornos

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-112.0%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-112.2%1-23.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.2%2-16.2%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 88%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 46% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%

#2 1–0 20.1%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buenos Aires City1.0

Alumni Los Hornos0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BUENOS AIRES CITY · PPG 1.80

ALUMNI LOS HORNOS · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 1.62 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Buenos Aires City (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alumni Los Hornos (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buenos Aires City face Alumni Los Hornos in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buenos Aires City a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Alumni Los Hornos 24%, so Buenos Aires City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Buenos Aires City and 0.6 for Alumni Los Hornos (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buenos Aires City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.80 for Alumni Los Hornos.

Buenos Aires City vs Alumni Los Hornos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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