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Provincial vs Deportivo Metalurgico Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

Provincial

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Metalurgico

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.28 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-116.8%0-215.4%0-39.4%0-4+6.6%1 1-05.1%1-19.3%1-28.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.7%2 2-01.4%2-12.6%2-22.4%2-31.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 63.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 49.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.6%

A 64% / xG 0.6-1.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.4%

#2 0–1 16.8%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 0–3 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Provincial0.6

Deportivo Metalurgico1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PROVINCIAL · PPG 1.00

DEPORTIVO METALURGICO · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.28 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Provincial (H) 13.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Metalurgico (A) 63.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Provincial face Deportivo Metalurgico in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Provincial a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Deportivo Metalurgico 64%, so Deportivo Metalurgico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Provincial and 1.8 for Deportivo Metalurgico (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Provincial are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Deportivo Metalurgico.

Provincial vs Deportivo Metalurgico Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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