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Estrella de Berisso vs Provincial Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

Estrella de Berisso

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Provincial

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-111.9%0-25.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.9%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-17.6%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.9%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% — — —

Draw 29.1% — — —

Away win 28.6% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 28.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 42% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrella de Berisso1.1

Provincial1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELLA DE BERISSO · PPG 1.00

PROVINCIAL · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estrella de Berisso (H) 42.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Provincial (A) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrella de Berisso face Provincial in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrella de Berisso a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Provincial 29%, so Estrella de Berisso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Estrella de Berisso and 1.0 for Provincial (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrella de Berisso are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Provincial.

Estrella de Berisso vs Provincial Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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