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Defensores Glew vs SAT Moreno Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Defensores Glew

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

SAT Moreno

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-114.9%0-29.2%0-33.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.7%2-15.8%2-23.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.4%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 37.7% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 49.3% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.3%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores Glew0.9

SAT Moreno1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES GLEW · PPG 2.25

SAT MORENO · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.36, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores Glew (H) 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SAT Moreno (A) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores Glew face SAT Moreno in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores Glew a 34% chance, the draw 29% and SAT Moreno 38%, so SAT Moreno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Defensores Glew and 1.2 for SAT Moreno (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores Glew are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.25 for SAT Moreno.

Defensores Glew vs SAT Moreno Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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