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Millonarios W vs Santa Fe W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 15 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 22:20

Millonarios W

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santa Fe W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-17.2%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.0%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.4%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 25.5% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millonarios W1.5

Santa Fe W0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLONARIOS W · PPG 2.43

SANTA FE W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Millonarios W (H) 52.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santa Fe W (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Millonarios W face Santa Fe W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millonarios W a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Santa Fe W 22%, so Millonarios W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Millonarios W and 0.6 for Santa Fe W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millonarios W are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.00 for Santa Fe W.

Millonarios W vs Santa Fe W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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