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Fortaleza W vs Independiente Medellín W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 20:15

Fortaleza W

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente Medellín W

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-114.2%0-27.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.4%2-16.4%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 33.1% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 29.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza W1.0

Independiente Medellín W1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA W · PPG 0.71

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLÍN W · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza W (H) 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Independiente Medellín W (A) 33.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza W face Independiente Medellín W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza W a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Independiente Medellín W 33%, so Fortaleza W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Fortaleza W and 1.0 for Independiente Medellín W (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza W are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.14 for Independiente Medellín W.

Fortaleza W vs Independiente Medellín W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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