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Xelajú vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 02:00

Xelajú

PPG 1.98 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aurora

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-17.1%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-111.4%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.1%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-14.9%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 76.9% 1.30 -30.3%

Draw 24.7% 23.1% 4.33 +4.2%

Away win 21.7% 10.0% 10.00 +70.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -6.3%

BTTS 48.9% 44.4% 2.25 +10.0%

Home O1.5 49.4% 67.6% 1.48 -26.9%

Away O1.5 20.3% 16.7% 6.00 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.9%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xelajú1.6

Aurora0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

XELAJÚ · PPG 1.98

AURORA · PPG 0.96

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xelajú (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -30.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +4.2%

Aurora (A) 21.7%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +70.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xelajú face Aurora in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xelajú a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Aurora 22%, so Xelajú are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Xelajú and 0.7 for Aurora (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xelajú are averaging 1.98 points per game versus 0.96 for Aurora. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +87.1%.

Xelajú vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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