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Envigado vs Real Soacha Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 1 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 20:30

Envigado

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Soacha

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-17.3%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-111.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-18.7%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.5%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 44.1% — — —

Over 3.5 24.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -77.3%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Envigado1.5

Real Soacha0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ENVIGADO · PPG 1.73

REAL SOACHA · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Envigado (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Soacha (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Envigado face Real Soacha in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Envigado a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Real Soacha 20%, so Envigado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Envigado and 0.7 for Real Soacha (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Envigado are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.62 for Real Soacha.

Envigado vs Real Soacha Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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