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Real Cartagena vs Real Santander Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:00

Real Cartagena

PPG 2.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Santander

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-13.6%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.6%1-17.9%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-16.4%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-15.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 82.0% 1.22 -23.8%

Draw 20.0% 20.0% 5.00 0.0%

Away win 17.5% 8.3% 12.00 +66.0%

Over 2.5 60.7% 58.8% 1.70 +3.2%

Over 3.5 37.4% 37.0% 2.70 +1.0%

BTTS 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Home O1.5 61.8% 72.5% 1.38 -14.7%

Away O1.5 19.1% 16.7% 6.00 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Cartagena2.2

Real Santander0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 2.08

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.08 vs 0.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Cartagena (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -23.8%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV 0.0%

Real Santander (A) 17.5%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +66.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Cartagena face Real Santander in Colombia - Primera B on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Cartagena a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Real Santander 18%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Cartagena and 0.6 for Real Santander (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Cartagena are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.14 for Real Santander. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.9%.

Real Cartagena vs Real Santander Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions