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Depor FC vs Ind. Yumbo Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 1 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 00:30

Depor FC

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ind. Yumbo

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-116.7%0-28.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.3%1-113.1%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.8%2-15.2%2-22.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.3%3-11.4%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 23.1% 4.33 +14.0%

Draw 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -3.5%

Away win 42.1% 55.6% 1.80 -24.2%

Over 2.5 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Over 3.5 23.0% 23.8% 4.20 -2.0%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 25.3% 3.95 +31.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 16.7%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Depor FC0.8

Ind. Yumbo1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPOR FC · PPG 0.50

IND. YUMBO · PPG 1.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.28, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Depor FC (H) 28.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +14.0%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.5%

Ind. Yumbo (A) 42.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Depor FC face Ind. Yumbo in Colombia - Primera B on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Depor FC a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Ind. Yumbo 42%, so Ind. Yumbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Depor FC and 1.1 for Ind. Yumbo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Depor FC are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.14 for Ind. Yumbo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +31.5%.

Depor FC vs Ind. Yumbo Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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