Today / Colombia - Primera B / Real Santander vs Patriotas

Real Santander vs Patriotas Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 21:00

Real Santander

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Patriotas

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-113.9%0-28.3%0-33.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.4%2-16.4%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% — — —

Draw 29.6% — — —

Away win 35.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 52.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.2%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Santander1.0

Patriotas1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.75

PATRIOTAS · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Santander (H) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Patriotas (A) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Santander face Patriotas in Colombia - Primera B on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Santander a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Patriotas 36%, so Patriotas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Santander and 1.2 for Patriotas (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Santander are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.38 for Patriotas.

Real Santander vs Patriotas Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions