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Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 23:00

Union Magdalena

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orsomarso

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.4%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-110.9%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.2%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Magdalena1.7

Orsomarso0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 1.91

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Magdalena (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Orsomarso (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Magdalena face Orsomarso in Colombia - Primera B on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Magdalena a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Orsomarso 21%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Union Magdalena and 0.7 for Orsomarso (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Magdalena are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.12 for Orsomarso.

Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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