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Control Orientado vs Uribelarrea Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Control Orientado

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uribelarrea

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-116.9%0-27.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.7%1-113.0%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.7%2-15.0%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.5%3-11.3%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% — — —

Draw 32.8% — — —

Away win 34.1% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 24.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.0%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–1 16.9%

#4 1–0 14.7%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Control Orientado0.8

Uribelarrea0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CONTROL ORIENTADO · PPG 1.60

URIBELARREA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.12, combined xG 1.66 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Control Orientado (H) 33.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Uribelarrea (A) 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Control Orientado face Uribelarrea in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Control Orientado a 33% chance, the draw 33% and Uribelarrea 34%, so Uribelarrea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Control Orientado and 0.9 for Uribelarrea (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Control Orientado are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.25 for Uribelarrea.

Control Orientado vs Uribelarrea Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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