Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / KFUM II vs SF Grei

KFUM II vs SF Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

KFUM II

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

SF Grei

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.6%0-21.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.3%1-14.5%1-24.5%1-33.0%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.2%2-16.4%2-26.4%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.0%3-16.1%3-26.0%3-34.0%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-18.6%4+-28.6%4+-35.7%4+-4+4.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 26.0% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 72.2% — — —

Away O1.5 50.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob70.3%

H 53% / xG 2.8-2.0 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.4%

#2 2–2 6.4%

#3 3–1 6.1%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KFUM II2.8

SF Grei2.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KFUM II · PPG 1.17

SF GREI · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

KFUM II (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SF Grei (A) 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KFUM II face SF Grei in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KFUM II a 53% chance, the draw 21% and SF Grei 26%, so KFUM II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for KFUM II and 2.0 for SF Grei (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KFUM II are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.50 for SF Grei.

KFUM II vs SF Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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